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Impact of Climate Variability on Fire Danger 
This research project sought to improve understanding of the potential effects of climate variability on fire climate and fire danger trends in New Zealand, and to determine likely differences in fire danger for the two key natural cycles that operate over time scales of seasons to years (El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation) and decades (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation). Differences in fire danger under the individual and combined phases of ENSO and the IPO were compared using long-term fire weather records contained in the fire danger climatology database developed previously. Results from the study indicate that the ENSO and IPO climate variability cycles can increase or decrease fire dangers in different parts of the country depending on the phase, driven by patterns in rainfall and temperature changes, and while fire dangers appear to be driven more by ENSO than by the IPO, there is also some evidence of reinforcement of ENSO fire dangers by the IPO. Knowledge of these impacts of natural climate variability on fire danger will allow fire authorities to better prepare for the risks associated with these seasonal to interannual climate cycles. (Also see report #83)

Key Information

Report Number: 72 
Title: Impact of Climate Variability on Fire Danger 
Published: 1/08/2007 
Author: Grant Pearce, Jim Salinger, Jim Renwick 
Summary:
This project investigated methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather. The research used innovative methods for forecasting fire risk from two to four weeks ahead for fire risk regions.  It also looked at the impacts of seasonal, annual and decadal climate variability on fire danger.
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