This project investigated methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather. It aimed to bridge the gap between current forecasts of day-to-day changes and climate forecasts of changing risks over the coming months, so that assessments of fire weather severity can be made earlier than at present. The research used innovative methods developed by NIWA for forecasting fire risk from two to four weeks ahead for fire risk regions that utilises a set (or 'ensemble') of weather forecast model runs that capture the inherent uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation. The scheme predicts the likely range of temperature (daily maximum and minimum, soil), average wind speed, daily rainfall and solar radiation at 70 sites, with rainfall and temperature at over 100 sites, from one day out to two weeks, with an extension that estimates temperate and rainfall for a month out. To go to monthly forecasts, the predictions for the first two weeks of the 30-day period are used to estimate the probability distribution of outcomes for the whole 30-day period. Here, we assess the utility of this scheme to predict fire weather, described using the fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices contained within the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System module of the NZFDRS. (Also see Report #72)