The Commission determined that its research priorities for 2005-2006 were as follows:

Targeting vulnerable groups in society

• perceived barriers to the uptake of fire safety measures in homes
• successful strategies to counter unwanted fires in aging or socially isolated community groups
• evaluation of the preparedness of disabled people to cope with fire incidents

Assessment of impacts

• the contribution of targeted programmes to overall outcomes
• changes in social behaviour attributable to targeted programmes
• the impact of New Zealand Fire Service on non-fire emergencies
• development of assessment tools for rural service delivery

Fire safety in the built environment

• reliability of fire safety systems for use in quantitative risk assessments
• review of fire safety in existing building stock including trends in change of use
• value of human life for fire regulatory impact statements
• expectations of the public of property protection in fire

Fire safety in rural areas

• projects that accord with the rural fire research strategy

The following projects were recommended to the Commission as achieving the required standards and judged to achieve the best value for money.

UMR Research
Exploring the fire safety knowledge of people with physical and sensory disabilities, living independently in the community

It is known that one in five New Zealanders live with a disability and that people with disabilities are over-represented in fatal fire statistics, with 38.8 percent of fire victims reported as having had a disability. New Zealanders with a disability are also more likely to live alone than other New Zealanders.

This project seeks to explore fire safety knowledge and also the level of preparedness for fire incidents among people with physical and sensory disabilities living independently in the community, and to investigate any barriers to take up of preventative measures.

It will also provide an opportunity for people with disabilities to give feedback on what is currently working for them and what would help them to be better prepared for fire incidents. In addition the effectiveness of current fire safety campaigns will be explored from the perspective of people with physical and sensory disabilities.

The key outcome will be an overview of the preparedness of this sub-population to deal with fire risk and to uncover pointers some possible steps to help protect this audience further from the dangers of fire.

Report 68: NZFS Research Among People with Physical and Sensory Disabilities [Download PDF, Acrobat 5.0 or later, 2Mb]

BERL
The Value of Human Life for Fire Regulatory Impact Statements

The objective of this project is to estimate a technically robust and defensible Value of Statistical Life (VoSL) for fire-related regulatory purposes in New Zealand.

The only VoSL currently in New Zealand relates to the risk of death from road accidents. It is widely acknowledged in the literature that society’s tolerance to death from fire is lower than its tolerance to death from road accidents and therefore that a higher (VoSL) value may be appropriate in fire-related Cost Benefit Analyses.

A fire-related VoSL could be established through the traditional means, namely Contingent Valuation. The literature also suggests that it may be possible (and appropriate) to calculate a fire-related value using the VoSL road accidents as an ‘anchor’, and establishing a robust ‘scale factor’ for fire-related deaths.

This project will include: a detailed review of the literature on VoSL estimation and other fields relevant to potential scale factors; the estimation of indicative fire-related VoSL values based on the review; and (as appropriate) a technically robust fire-related VoSL based upon additional market survey research.

NIWA
Prediction of Fire Weather and Associated Fire Danger

This project aims to investigate methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather. It combines the outcomes from previous NIWA research into the prediction of fire season severity and improved regional fire danger forecasts for New Zealand an complementary research undertaken by Ensis (then Forest Research) to develop a national fire climatology database and associated analytical tools. The research will use innovative methods for forecasting fire risk from two to four weeks ahead for fire risk regions. It is also proposed to undertake new research on the impacts of seasonal, annual and decadal climate variability on fire danger.

The project will deliver:

• Updated climatologies of fire weather and fire danger for weather stations across the country.
• Definition of “extreme: fire weather for individual station locations, for use in forecasting dangerous fire weather.
• Improved one to two weekly fire danger forecast extremes through improved two-week forecasts elements of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and a better understanding of relationships between weekly to monthly severity ratings and daily severity ratings.
• Predictions of likely changes in individual station climatologies, regional fire danger and fire season severity linked to current climate variability, largely associated with ENSO and decadal fluctuations.
• Improved awareness of seasonal fire danger trends, and fire managers better informed on potential fire behaviour and suppression requirements.

The research will lead to more effective and efficient use of resources, and ultimately a reduction in the incidence and consequences of rural fires.

Victoria University
Implementation of Urban Fire Spread Models as NZFS Tools

Earthquakes are known to cause fires. Due to the number of fires that occur after earthquakes and the difficulty fighting them there is potential for large conflagrations. Static and dynamic urban fire spread models have been developed. The dynamic model has the potential to be developed into a model for use in planning by the New Zealand Fire Service for fighting an urban conflagration. The models use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using Wellington data. The model can readily be applied and other areas with GIS information. Many Territorial Authorities are developing GIS models of their areas. In the long term the model could be developed as a firefighting tool as similar models have been in Japan. The model will be set up so that changes in conditions, such as forecast changes in wind speed and direction can be included. It would be used to assess locations for firefighting lines as an aid to decision making. In order for this approach to be successful input from the Fire Service is required in the development of the model. This project will develop the model, its interface and usability in conjunction with the Fire Service.

Victoria University
Adequacy of Existing House Foundations to Resist Earthquakes Effect on Service Reticulation and Ignitions

There is potential for large scale fires or conflagrations after major earthquake centered on or near a large urban area in New Zealand. It is unlikely that the New Zealand Fire Service (NZFS) would have the resources to fight such a fire while also undertaking rescue operations. Minimising ignitions will reduce the probability of conflagrations occurring. A significant proportion of ignitions in historical earthquakes were due to ruptured gas connections where they entered the buildings. These can be prevented by ensuring houses stay on their foundations and gas and other service connections are designed to cope with earthquake shaking. Occupants are likely to be trapped in houses if they fall off their foundations in an earthquake, and gas and electrical appliances are more likely to be damaged or moved resulting in potential ignition sources. Improving foundation connections will reduce ignitions and reduce the potential for occupants to be trapped within houses, in turn reducing the workload for the NZFS after an earthquake. This project will determine the magnitude of the problem caused by poor foundations and gas connections in houses in Wellington and estimate the benefit and cost of remedial measures.

Heimdall Consulting Ltd/ NZ Institute for Research on Ageing
Perceptions and Experiences of Fire Risks among Older People

The aims of this project are to identify environmental, behavioural, health, and other factors that contribute to the increased fire risk for persons aged 65 and over (“older people”) to improve fire safety and prevention initiatives and reduce their vulnerability to residential fires.

This project proposes four objectives –

• To review the incidence and impact of residential fires for older people in New Zealand in 1997-2005, as indicated by mortality, injury, and property loss measures, and to compare these with international findings for this age group, including relevant research and literature.
• To develop a structured interview schedule and administer this to a voluntary sample of older people who have experienced residential fires in the Arapawa (or other Fire Regions) in 2000-2005), to obtain narrative accounts of their experiences and other aspects of the fires.
• To undertake volunteer focus group meetings with older people to determine their perceptions of fire risks in their home environments and other factors affecting their vulnerability to fires.
• To report on the project findings and recommend appropriate fire safety and prevention initiatives to reduce the fire risk for older people based on the research, interviews, focus group, and consideration for other relevant information.

These aims and objectives are directed at supporting the advancement of fire safety and prevention knowledge affecting older people, both in New Zealand and international context.

Report 71: The Risks, Perceptions and Experiences of Fire Among Older People [Download PDF, Acrobat 5.0 or later, 2Mb]

MetService
Operational 10-Day Forecasts of Fire Weather Indices

MetService proposes to operationally implement the prototype 10-day forecasts of fire weather developed under a previous grant from the Contestable Research Fund. Fire managers currently have access to fire weather forecasts with a lead time of up to 3 days generated from a high-resolution mesoscale model and also to monthly and seasonal forecasts derived from statistical analysis of climate predictors. To target the one to two week period, multiple instances of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global ensemble numerical weather model will be used to deal with the uncertainty that is unavoidable at these time-scales.

Development of the operational forecasting system will occur during the second half of 2006. Trial forecasts should be available for the second half of the fire season. Daily charts and tables, valid at midday each day, will extend out to 10 days, and will be made available to fire managers through the MetConnect web application that currently carries the 1-3 day forecasts produced by MetService. The forecasts based on the ensemble data will include a number of minor improvements identified during the evaluation of the prototype forecasts.

Report 70: Operational 10-day Forecasts of Fire Weather Indices [Download PDF, Acrobat 5.0 or later, 1Mb]

TNS New Zealand
Fire Knowledge – Understanding in Depth New Zealanders’ Attitudes and Behaviours

The overall objective of this research is to assist the New Zealand Fire Service to better understand New Zealanders’ attitudes and behaviours in relation to fire. Eight focus groups will be conducted to identify the uptake of current communications, perceptions in relation to fire risk and subsequent decision making processes. Analysis will identify any potential differences between vulnerable groups in society. This qualitative research will be used to inform an update of the Commission’s annual Fire Knowledge Survey. The national survey of n=1,000 New Zealanders will adopt a tailored social marketing research approach, segmenting vulnerable groups based on their commitment to fire safety through the use of TNS’s Conversion ModelTM. The research will conclude with a series of recommendations to assist the Fire Service to develop a more fire safe culture in New Zealand.

Report 61: Fire Knowledge Research Qualitative Research Report [Download PDF, Acrobat 5.0 or later, 977Kb]

Centre for Organisational Research
Validation of the Firefighter Recruitment and Selection Programme

In 2003 the New Zealand Fire Service adopted a competency-based recruitment programme to select Trainee Firefighters. The Fire Service is now in a position to validate the recently introduced competencies and have called for research proposals to undertake this study. The project offers a unique opportunity to help the organisation become a ‘best practice’ exemplar within the international Fire Service community.

The purpose of the project is to align the training and performance criteria with the competencies, and validate those competencies assessed during the selection process. Specific training and performance measures will be developed for the validation study and rating workshops will be provided to key stakeholders on how to rate competencies in training and performance settings. The study will use world-class best practice models to provide greater confidence to the international body of knowledge required and have access to materials that can be used across the organization after the project is completed.